Dr. Dan Kneer Advisory Group
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Dr. Dan Kneer Advisory Group |
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Forecasting and Budgeting“Looking into the future” is a unique perspective. How do you do that … accurately? Well, in fact, it isn’t impossible to get a pretty good handle on the next few business cycles, especially for world-class businesses. If your core processes have reached a steady state, then the future doesn’t look so different from the past. We can utilize regression analysis (in Excel) to “peek” into the future, with great accuracy. But what about businesses with seasonality (great fluctuations in their data: within-year and/or within-quarter)? In that case, we can apply exponential smoothing to normalize the data, then we’ll run time-series regression. We can then adjust the data for known and unknown (but likely) events (called anchor and adjustment). From a budgeting perspective, it really helps to “compare ourselves” against two standards; ourselves and the industry, and the industry leader. This is the notion of “benchmarking.” We will learn methodologies for determining how to quantify business rules, generating Critical Success Factors (CSFs) an related Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). How accurate are these forecasts? We will discuss WINS with accuracies of up to 98.4%! To prove that this works, we’ll try to run data on YOUR COMPANY (if publicly data exists).THIS CLASS IS 100% HANDS-ON, WITH SEVERAL COMPUTERIZED CASES. WE CAN TEACH BOTH OFFICE 97-2003 AND 2007. |
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Copyright © 2009 Dr. Dan Kneer Advisory Group.
All rights reserved. Last Updated: 30 July 2010 |
